Last night I watched The Tomorrow’s War, starring Chris Pratt. An entertaining movie, albeit with questionable physics. It got me thinking about COVID-19. (Do we really need a prompt to get us thinking about current pandemic?) It got me thinking: Could we prevent the hospitalizations and death toll, if we could travel back 30 years? If we knew 30 years ago that there was a way to minimize the devastation, would we act accordingly?
According to Mokdad and others (1999)1:
“The prevalence of obesity (defined as a body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) increased from 12.0% in 1991 to 17.9% in 1998. A steady increase was observed in all states; in both sexes; across age groups, races, educational levels; and occurred regardless of smoking status. The greatest magnitude of increase was found in the following groups: 18- to 29-year-olds (7.1% to 12.1%), those with some college education (10.6% to 17.8%), and those of Hispanic ethnicity (11.6% to 20.8%). The magnitude of the increased prevalence varied by region (ranging from 31.9% for mid Atlantic to 67.2% for South Atlantic, the area with the greatest increases) and by state (ranging from 11.3% for Delaware to 101.8% for Georgia, the state with the greatest increases).”
Current statistics suggest that the current prevalence of obesity in the United States exceeds 36%. Interesting, those who were 18- to 29-year-olds in 1998 (who saw the greatest increases in obesity) are now 41 to 52 years old. The highest rates of obesity in 1998 were in 50- to 59-year-olds (23.8%), who are now 73 to 82 years old—at the cusps of the highest risks for hospitalization and death from COVID-19.
We know that obesity is a central factor in the severity of COVID-19 infection—along with the prevalence of pre-existing conditions associated with COVID-19. Obesity is a complex problem that is not easily solved by telling people to eat right, exercise, and lose weight. It is not a problem of will or a problem of genetics. It is an economic and social problem that requires a community solution. What was happening from 1991-1998 to feed the growing prevalence of obesity had started before the early ‘80s and has persisted (i.e., magnified) until today.
If we could travel back to 1991, knowing what we know today, could we have turned the tide of obesity and hypokinetic disease and spared millions from the traumatic effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus? Would we have been willing to change society?
We can’t change the past, but we can affect the future. We can reverse the trends. We must reverse the trends. The cost of obesity and its associated health issues (hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, respiratory illness, cancer, etc.) already approach trillions of dollars annually. These costs were only magnified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Sadly, I see little commitment among the federal and state governments to address the issue. There are no such preventative strategies in the President’s 27-page Pandemic Preparedness Plan2. It is also not what I would consider a “plan” per se. We, indeed, need an Apollo-style commitment to a healthy America. Perhaps a commitment to developing time-travel should be considered.
Be your best today; be better tomorrow.
Carpe momento!
1Mokdad, A. H., Serdula, M. K., Dietz, W. H, et al. (1999). The spread of the Obesity Epidemic in the United States, 1991-1998. JAMA, 282(16):1519-1522.
2https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/American-Pandemic-Preparedness-Transforming-Our-Capabilities-Final-For-Web.pdf